"Devastating" is the word biologist Charis Van der Heide used in January for what the Ellwood Mesa count turned up. She was speaking to the Santa Barbara Independent, which reported that the city's January 2026 count found only two monarchs across all of Ellwood's overwintering sites.
The Independent also reported that the 2025–26 season peaked at 20 monarchs, counted in October. That same season, the trails into the Goleta Butterfly Grove were in better shape than they had been in years. After the 2024 storm closure, the City improved the grove's trails and drainage and put in a temporary footbridge. It is also planting thousands of new trees for future winters. Goleta has a grove ready for butterflies and a butterfly population that has mostly stayed away. Because of that gap, a resident with a free morning and a willing partner can do more good this season by counting than by just looking.
The timing is close. The Western Monarch Count's early-season window opened October 17 and closes Sunday, November 1.
What the 2025 numbers look like next to other groves
Over decades, Ellwood was a grove where thousands of monarchs once clustered, according to Van der Heide. The City puts the long-term drop in the migratory western monarch population at 95% since the 1980s. Still, a statewide decline doesn't fully explain Ellwood's numbers. The Xerces Society's mid-season count, taken in late November and early December 2025, shows how unevenly the remaining butterflies spread out.
| Site, 2025 mid-season count | Monarchs recorded |
|---|---|
| Natural Bridges State Beach, Santa Cruz County | 2,500 |
| Pismo State Beach Monarch Grove, San Luis Obispo County | 471 |
| Gaviota State Beach, Santa Barbara County, two sites | 425 |
| Pacific Grove Monarch Sanctuary, Monterey County | 188 |
| Ellwood Mesa, Santa Barbara County, nine sites | 29 |
| All counted sites statewide, 249 sites | about 12,260 |
The Gaviota row is the one that matters for Goleta. Up the coast in the same county, two sites held more than fourteen times as many monarchs as Ellwood's nine sites combined. The butterflies haven't left Santa Barbara County. Fewer of them are choosing Ellwood, and figuring out why is the purpose of the counting and restoration work at the grove.
The City's own figure of 20 measures something different. It is the most monarchs the City's biological consultants counted on any single day of the 2025–26 season. The Xerces figure of 29 comes from volunteers covering nine Ellwood sites during the mid-season window. Each number answers its own question, and they shouldn't be added together or compared directly.
Statewide, Xerces called 2025 the third-lowest tally since the count began in 1997. The three lowest years have all come recently, with 1,901 monarchs in 2020, 9,119 in 2024 and 12,260 in 2025. The low years have been followed by recoveries before. The Independent reported that Ellwood counted only 10 monarchs in 2020, and that the California population then rebounded to almost a quarter million the following year.
A grove rebuilt during the lean years
The repair work at Ellwood began before the worst counts. In October 2023, the Goleta City Council unanimously approved the Monarch Butterfly Habitat Management Phase 1 Implementation Plan. Severe winter storms in 2024 damaged roads, culverts and trails, filled creeks with debris and brought down dozens of trees, and Ellwood Mesa was temporarily closed to the public. The California Coastal Commission issued a coastal development permit for the plan in May 2024. Restoration started that year, and more than 500 volunteers took part.
In 2025 the City improved trails and drainage inside the grove and installed the temporary footbridge visitors cross today. Restoration and vegetation management have continued through 2026. The Phase 1 timeline covers habitat planting, management of hazardous vegetation, trail rerouting and improvements to the visitor experience. The City describes the effort as clearing dead and dying trees, planting thousands of new trees, and tracking individual monarchs to learn where they go.
That is long-term work. The eucalyptus that drew monarchs here were planted by Ellwood Cooper, who settled on the land in 1870. According to the City, the grove's 75 acres of forest give monarchs a range of conditions to choose from. A thick outer border of trees protects the center from wind, and the butterflies generally do best where wind stays under 10 mph. Restoring that kind of structure takes years. Counts taken in the lean years give the baseline that later counts get measured against, site by site across Ellwood's roosting areas.
Some programs are still coming back. The City says it is revitalizing its Monarch Butterfly Docent Program, and school field trips to the grove are on hold while the overwintering areas become stable and safe. Until regular docent shifts return, the count is the most organized way for a resident to take part.
The three count windows, and what volunteering involves
Xerces runs the Western Monarch Count in three windows this season:
- Early-season count: October 17 to November 1, 2026
- Mid-season count: November 14 to December 6, 2026, formerly called the Thanksgiving Count
- Late-season count: December 26, 2026 to January 10, 2027, formerly called the New Year's Count
The early window ends this weekend. For anyone who hasn't signed up yet, the realistic targets are the mid-season count, which Xerces uses for its headline statewide numbers, and the late-season count after the holidays.
Everyone registers every year, returning volunteers included, through the Western Monarch Count sign-up form. The form lists two Santa Barbara regional coordinators, one of them the biologist Charis van der Heide. Volunteers choose which count periods they can cover, and surveys are done with a partner. On its volunteer information page, Xerces says the role takes 12 to 15 hours each fall and winter, includes virtual and in-person training, and requires new volunteers to work in teams of at least two.
The partner rule makes a good excuse to bring a neighbor along. The time commitment works out to a few mornings across the season, which is about what a regular walk on the mesa already takes.
Low numbers make careful counting harder, too. In a February 2026 update from the City's Goleta Monarch Press, the City's biologist cautioned that focused surveys can miss a few butterflies scattered outside the known roosting spots. When the total is two, every additional pair of trained eyes matters.
Visiting on your own this fall
For a walk without a clipboard, the City's Goleta Butterfly Grove page covers the logistics. Free parking is at the Ellwood Mesa Open Space and Sperling Preserve lot, 7729 Hollister Avenue, across from Ellwood Elementary School. The grove is a little over half a mile from the lot, about a 15-minute walk, and butterfly trail markers show the way. MTD Line 25 stops at Viajero on Hollister Avenue near the lot. Admission is free, and the parking lot has a portable restroom. The City suggests sturdy shoes and binoculars. The same page gives the hours two ways, sunrise to sunset in one section and 8 a.m. to sunset in its FAQ, so an early-morning visitor should confirm with the City before going.
The City's rain guidance matters more this time of year. It asks visitors to stay out of the grove while it's raining and while the ground is muddy after a storm, and warns of fallen trees, blocked paths and fragile terrain. Paths through the grove are natural and rough in places, which can be hard for anyone with mobility or balance issues. Dogs need to be on a leash, and bicycles and horses aren't allowed in the grove.
Time of day affects what you'll see. According to the City, monarchs tend to stay in their clusters in the morning and on cool days, and fly and puddle around the grove in the afternoon and on warm days. Monarchs reach the coast in October and settle into the best-sheltered groves in November. A walk now catches arrival season. The City expects to post this season's biweekly count chart on the same page, so checking it before a visit shows whether anyone has found a cluster.
The grove also connects to more trail. The Land Trust for Santa Barbara County's Coronado Butterfly Preserve is reached from Hollister Avenue by way of Coronado Drive, and its trails link to the Goleta Monarch Grove and nearby coastal open space. Bird watchers can join Santa Barbara Audubon's Friday Bird Walk at Ellwood Mesa's Sperling Preserve on November 6, from 8:30 to 10:30 a.m., meeting at the Ellwood Mesa lot across from Ellwood School. It's a bird walk, but it covers the same ground monarch counters will be surveying once the mid-season window opens on November 14.
The trails are repaired, the count windows are posted, and the regional coordinators are listed by name. The mid-season count opens November 14.
At Concierge Realty, Jan Sanderlin follows Central Coast places like Ellwood Mesa the same way she follows its neighborhoods: through the details that change from one season to the next. If you'd like to talk about the places around your home that matter to you, Jan would be glad to hear from you. Start Your Concierge Consultation.